Unlock 1.0

Today is 8th June 2020 – the first day of Unlock 1.0. I started coming to office from today sans any of my staff. No one would be able to travel because of the restrictions. Just visiting office at regular intervals and keeping regular hours would be therapeutic for me. I had started getting 'office sick'. I will follow all guidelines like using a sanitiser, wearing gloves when I visit a toilet etc. I wonder how long it will be when we finally have 'business as usual'. My technical analysis course ended yesterday and I now plan to type out all my class notes. I do not see myself achieving much success as a trader. Maybe a long term investor is what I may be able to do. Mr. Thakur very skillfully demonstrated how much money one can make trading in F&O. But it is easier said than done. Mr. Thakur has a 25 year history of learning. This has to be acknowledged. Everyone would have a different strategy to approach the market.

The past two and a half months have been traumatising for India and the rest of the world. We started feeling the COVID-19 shocks a little later than Europe and America but today rank 5th in the global tally. Today our rate of growth is close to 10,000 patients a day. Very soon we will overtake England. Never ever have we seen such fear or pessimism envelope the world. The duo of Fear and Pessimism always travel in a pair and have been with mankind ever since we gained consciousness. In the recent past famines, drought and wars were the cause of F&P. In recorded history there are instances of Small Pox, The Spanish Fever. But I think this bad guy here – COVID-19 – would beat them hollow in its global impact.

India is not really ready to tackle this pandemic as we have abysmal healthcare services. There aren't sufficient beds or ventilators. Support staff is missing at most hospitals. Getting a patient admitted to any hospital is proving to be a Herculean task. It also sets you back by a couple of thousand rupees. Other genuine medical emergencies are being ignored. Surgeries are being postponed. Doctors and nurses are overworked and work in the fear of contracting the disease on a daily basis. This crisis has been a great leveler as no one is spared. Coronavirus or SARSCOV-19 does not distinguish between rich and poor and has no affinity to any ethnicity. Everyone is at risk. Some with better immunity may escape with minor symptoms but senior citizens with comorbidities face high risk of death. 

This cloak and dagger play with COVID has so far seen humans lagging behind as we haven't really found any sure way of handling a patient or laid down treatment guidelines. We have been tinkering endlessly with quarantine regulations, closing streets or buildings, reopening them, shutting businesses. Everything has been haphazard. Everyday we see promises being made about a vaccine just a few weeks away or how efficacious hydrochloroquine and remdesevir are. But this is far from the truth as we are still groping in the dark.

The poor and migrants in India have paid a very heavy price as they are grappling with means to survive. Our worries and concern pale as compared to them. Scores have traversed huge distances to reach their native places. Some succumbed on the way, others were ostracised by their villages. The Modi government could have handled the migrants crisis in a more restrained, dignified and sensitive way. What is more upsetting is the success achieved by Sonu Sood. Sonu Sood in the capacity of an individual has done more for the migrants than the centre and state governments.

America has gone all guns blazing against China but the fact remains, USA cannot do without their oriental partner. China has heavily invested in US government bonds, they own several businesses, trade freely on the US exchanges and are a major trading partner. All this posturing from Trump will last till the presidential elections. Then it will be business as usual.

China is trying hard to white wash its image by trying to influence the WHO. China has also engaged in border skirmishes with many of its neighbours in an attempt to distract. India is fighting a diplomatic battle along with a battle on the front. Nothing will come of it. But a lot of noise is being generated.

Global economies are reeling as all industries have virtually shut down. Services, manufacturing, education, you name it, everything is closed. Farming seems to be the only sector which has seen movement. The education field has gone topsy turvy as students are grappling with exams, deferments, admissions, e-learning. Entertainment, clothing, food and beverages, travel and tourism and fitness - the 'luxury' industry has shut down. Crores of people have lost jobs or are working from home with diminished salaries. GDPs of nations, business forecasts have all crashed and broken the x-axis. We somehow try to reassure ourselves that this too shall pass.

We have seen cyclones (Amphan and Nisarga), wild market movements, job losses, an elephant being killed in a perverse manner, migrants crisis, people dying of hunger or committing suicide because of job losses, global outrage over the killing of a Black (George Floyd), government 'packages', euphoria, denial, tamasha in the form of banging thalis, lighting lamps... so much as happened in these 2-3 months!.